Poor numbers are too important to be dismissed as just that. Morten jerven s research shows how the statistical capacities of subsaharan african economies have fallen into disarray. How we are misled by african development statistics and what to do about it, had been blocked from presenting his research on african statistical capacity at the uneca. Their combined citations are counted only for the first article. View enhanced pdf access article on wiley online library html view download pdf for offline viewing. Richard harper, the social organization of the imfs. Transcript of development drums episode 46 morten jerven. Coordinating aid distribution to the poorest countries requires identifying which countries are poor. Building a history of how economic statistics about africa are produced and. Morten jerven will highjack the african statistical development programme. In practice this has meant sorting countries into developmental cohorts on the basis of macroeconomic data, with countries in poorer cohorts gaining access to more and more concessional aid programs. As patchy and problematic as they are, these numbers are nevertheless ubiquitous as instruments of proof and tools of government. Poor numbers is the first analysis of the production and use of african economic development statistics. On the accuracy of trade and gdp statistics in africa.
Morten jervens evaluation reveals how the statistical capacities of subsaharan african economies have fallen into disarray. The world ank explains that when the data are missing, the ank uses za method for filling the data gap, which is based on the assumption that the growth of the variable from a period for which data exists has been the same as the average growth for those other countries in the same regional or income. Africa by assistant professor morten jerven overdrive. African symposia on statistical development in feb 2014. Because of the lack of data on food production, the best a statistician can do is to infer food production based on the caloric needs of the population. You say that there are a litany of reasons for thinking that the economic statistics that we work with are misleading. Morten jervens research shows how the statistical capacities of subsaharan african economies have fallen into disarray. Poor numbers by morten jerven pdf, ebook read online perlego. The journal of african history, 593, 449461 i have posted by ungated preproof version of the article here. Click download or read online button to get chapter 7 numbers policy paradox the art of political decision making book now. He has a phd in economic history from the london school of economics and has published widely on african economic development, particularly on patterns of economic growth and on economic development statistics. In his classic text on the accuracy of economic statistics morgenstern 1963 warned about the problem of misreporting. Jerven begins with a brief introduction to the concept of gross domestic product and some of its complexities.
Jerven, poor numbers, and morten jerven and deborah johnston, statistical tragedy in africa. What do we know about income and growth in subsaharan africa. Morten jerven has a new book on this topic, poor numbers. The data are unreliable and potentially seriously misleading. Development economist branko milanovic writing for the world bank, development economist morten jerven, and billionaire philanthropist bill gates have identified the maddison project, the penn world tables, and world bankimf data the world development indicators, as the three main sources of worldwide economic statistics such as gdp data, with the focus of the maddison project. How we are misled by african development statistics and what to do about it explained the problems with africas economic data. The numbers substantially misstate the actual state of affairs. How we are misled by african development statistics and what to do about it cornell studies in political economy jerven, morten on. Morten jerven, economic growth and measurement reconsidered in botswana, kenya, tanzania, and zambia. How we are misled by african development statistics by. Some of the problems in africa include a large informal. How we are misled by african development statistics and what to do about it find, read and cite all the research you need on researchgate. Huge discrepancies and alarming gaps in statistical knowledge exist about productivity, income distribution, and population and any ranking of african economies. As patchy and problematic as they are, these numbers are nevertheless ubiquitous as instruments of both proof and government.
Morten your first book, lets focus on this question of poor numbers. Last week african arguments published a story that prof morten jerven, author of. Quantified fictions take shape in complex statistical. How we are misled by african development statistics and what to do about it. Csep invites you to explore this question with professor morten jerven, author of the recently published africa. Understanding contemporary africa download pdfepub. Despite all of the problems, and the risks of garbage in, garbage out, jerven s conclusion stresses the importance of numbers, calling for qualitative rigor and interdisciplinary approaches, and defends the concept of gdp as too important to be ignored, even if the numbers are too poor to be trusted blindly. Morten jerven teaches at the school for international studies at simon fraser university in vancouver, canada. While it has no technical details, poor numbers is nevertheless aimed at people with at least some familiarity with development issues, african history and geography, and economics.
A couple of years later when my book poor numbers was published, i received an. The title of morten jervens engaging and valuable new book, poor numbers. School for international studies, simon fraser university, vancouver, bc, canada v6b 5k3. H ow w e ar e m i sl ed by afr i can d evel opm ent stati sti cs and w hat to d o about it. Despite all of the problems, and the risks of garbage in, garbage out, jervens conclusion stresses the importance of numbers, calling for qualitative rigor and interdisciplinary approaches, and defends the concept of gdp as too important to be ignored, even if the numbers are too poor to be trusted blindly. In poor numbers i advocate a historical perspective on the statistical office in order to understand some of its current problems jerven, 20, 56. How we are misled by african development statistics and what to do about it cornell studies in political economy. To the extent that governments can influence their macroeconomic data, some. Morten jervens poor numbers sheds light on the acute fragility of african statistics, itself linked to the precarious conditions in which aggregates are produced. How we are misled by african development statistics and what to do about it, by morten jerven find, read and cite. How we are misled by african development statistics and what to do about it, by morten jerven. Thereareseriouslimitstowhatcanbeknown,andwhichissues canberesolved,throughcounting. Morten jerven explains why we know less than we should about what is happening in african economies, and why this is leading economists to the wrong recommendations. The numbers significantly misstate the exact state of affairs.
How we are misled by african development statistics and what to do about it, is unfortunate. As morten jerven of simon fraser university explains. With regards to balance of trade and payments, he cautioned that a measure of the balance of trade is an arbitrary and fearfully vague notion. What do we really know about economic growth, wealth, the population or the structure of the economy in africa. The history of poverty in africa by numbers posted on february 6, 2019 february 6, 2019 i just published a new article in the journal of african history the history of african poverty by numbers. This was due to opposition to his ideas from, notably, the south african statistician general, pali lehohla.
Even jerven seems aware that such a title could raise hackles. Unfortunately, this guesstimate is further weakened by its usage of a necessary guesstimate of. How we are misled by african development statistics and what to do about it, cornell university press, 20. I just published a new article in the journal of african history the history of african poverty by numbers. Poor numbers is the first analysis of the manufacturing and use of african monetary enchancment statistics. Thinking about growth and development in africa morten jerven, poor numbers.
The four phases of the african state in the 20th century about. Evaluating the data base for african economic development, journal of development studies 51, 2 2015, pp. Development by numbers a primer development research. Chapter 7 numbers policy paradox the art of political.
Economists and historians approaching the african past. How we are misled by african development statistics and what to do about it, there are many countries that are in a similar position 3. The statistical capacity of african states was greatly expanded in the late colonial and early postcolonial period, but it was greatly impaired during the economic crisis of the 1970s. Poor numbersis the first analysis of the production and use of african economic development statistics. Acces pdf poor numbers how we are misled by african development statistics morten jerven pronouncement poor numbers how we are misled by african development statistics morten jerven can be one of the options to accompany you later than having further time. Poor numbers how we are misled by african development.
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